Locating Value with DHOs, Connector Bigs, Scalability through a different lens
Let's take a look at a few 2022 draft bigs and assess their complementary offensive value.
I think the modern center projection is often reserved for the high tier, “unicorn” big prospects when that distinction is often unwarranted. The real modern center deficiency to exploit in the draft now is the lower usage, connective tissue center. Gone are the days of the connector wing (the good ones just become creators, the bad ones, well, :(( ), in is the era of the connector big, spamming dhos, popping above the break and threading elbow passes to cutters.
All the way from Jokic down to your Steven Adams’s, Vuc’s and WCJ’s, these bigs bring good offense aplenty. Pre-screen motion is key and a proficient high post operator can open the little creases for perimeter attackers that make the difference between a good and great offense. Conversations about scalability must extend beyond sharp, spacing wings. They must include these traditional-sized big men who may not be spot-up artists, but who maximize offensive harmony with flowing offense from the mid and high post.
I see four key areas connective bigs should excel in:
1. Short roll
Now this doesn’t necessarily have to be the prototype Steph commands two, Draymond go type of situation, rather, short roll proficiency to me entails a mastery of unstructured advantage processing: can you make the correct decision when the numbers favor your team? Do you have the tools and skills to execute that decision?
2. DHO keep/flow
The goals of a potent NBA offense rely on north-south movement, but so much of that is opened by east-west flow in the mid to high post. Big men roam the free-throw line extended area, setting screens, handing off to shooters and, critically, creating their own offense from this complementary position. Do you have the ballhandling chops to fake a handoff and create after? Can you compromise a fooled defense?
3. Close-quarters finishing
None of the advantages created via short rolling or DHO keeps matter if the offense can’t capitalize score. As such, these same bigs who create these oh-so-important yet tiny windows have to be able to finish plays in these same windows generated from their earlier work. Can you finish among the trees? Can you catch the ball in traffic at tough angles and score? Do you have the tools and skills to create angles in tight spaces?
4. Force that closeout!
Maybe surprisingly, this is the least important of the aforementioned skills to me. Big men especially can get around a lackluster jumper with finishing/cutting/screening/passing more than smaller dudes can, but having a respectable jumper and the means to punish overeager defenders is a nice add. Can you offer positive spacing? Can you put the ball on the floor after a bad closeout? What about a good one? Can you move quickly/fluidly enough to utilize your newfound advantage?
BONUS: transition
The faster these advantages come, the better. Therefore, having a big who can grab and go only boosts the effectiveness of their connective goodness. Can you grab a board and fire an outlet? What about dribbling up and making a simple kickout or flow into a dho? Are you comfortable processing and moving in the open floor?
As such, let’s go through some of the bigs in this class who could fit this mold based on their adherence to my phony checklist.
Chet Holmgren: Close quarters finishing, force that closeout!, transition
Chet provides a nice example of the phenomenon I brought up earlier: a number one recruit dubbed the next unicorn big, Chet’s offensive skillset lends best to the type of big we’re discussing right now. Not burly enough to bang in the post, not shifty enough to create off the dribble, but just good enough to rock out on closeout attacks, rolls and transition work.
Aesthetic bias is a hell of a drug and has led to some rampant misconceptions regarding Chet’s game. Ignoring his frame is impossible, but it’s wise to make conclusions based on what he actually does rather than how he looks. Despite every discussion about Chet ever beginning with some variation of “he needs to put on weight blah blah,” close-quarters finishing is a projectable strength for Chet — he’s finishing 87.7% of his shots at the rim this year. Nobody does that! And it’s not like Chet’s diet of finishes consists of mostly bunnies. Chet’s always played with a fiery edge and he’s sonning poor defenders down low with an array of scoring tools, length and flexibility to maneuver around, through and over interior defenders chief among them. He’s an Evan Mobley style dunker, favoring function over flash, getting the ball from point a to point b(ucket) as fast as possible.
There’s a gracefulness to Chet’s movement, evident in transition, fluidly striding through open space. Those long strides do more than make open floor highlights, rather, they allow Chet to cover court quickly. He’s probably not gonna be the kind of closeout attacker that can really work against a hounding defender, rather a pump and go type of player.
We haven’t really seen Chet operate much as a modern high post dho big as that’s not something Gonzaga asks of him, nor did any of his previous spots. Part of my concern here lies with Chet’s processing; his best passes come from his hi-lo work and when he’s able to draw a defender with his own scoring gravity, but what happens when the windows tighten and defenders really pressure his handle? Can he get from elbow to rim on his own against a brawny defender? I wouldn’t rule it out for Chet, but it’s the biggest question mark I have here.
And if you haven’t heard, this cat’s pretty fun in transition.
Paolo Banchero: Short roll, DHO keep/flow, close-quarters finishing, force that closeout!, transition
A 5 tool prospect! Paolo’s inclusion here isn’t a slight at the idea of a proto-initiator, rather, an ode to his versatility. Paolo is unique among your 6’9-7’0 perimeter prospects that evaluators fawn over as he has the strength and size to actually do the big man stuff players like Jaren Jackson have struggled with. Fitting next to higher usage ballhandlers should be seamless enough for Paolo, as he can scale up into a higher usage, shotmaking heavy role or play the connective hits we’re discussing now.
I don’t think the skills piece is much of a quandary here. The processing took some time, but it seems like Paolo has hit his stride as a passer of late and he way overshoots the jumper and scoring requirements here. Will Paolo be willing to slide down into a smaller role, especially early in his career? If he lands with a roster like Detroit or OKC, can he scale down to complement the on-ball prowess of a Cade, Giddey or Shai? There’s a certain hesitancy to Paolo’s game, often favoring methodical (and often effective) triple threats over snappy cuts or catch-and-shoot threes.
The other things to watch will be incremental; how quickly is Paolo processing the floor in space? We know Paolo can overwhelm a disadvantaged defense with his scoring, but can he choose the right solution to the more off-ball, low usage problems he’s presented with? How will his less structured feel and game in general translate to a role where structure is inherent?
Jalen Duren: Short roll, close-quarters finishing (?)
Elite defensive value is what makes Duren an attractive prospect, so squeezing any drop of offensive value possible out of him will be key to maximize his shot-blocking and ground covering goodness. The importance of a mega, Calvin Johnson catch radius is becoming more and more clear to me, which marks a key tool for Duren’s finishing hopes. His 6’9 height means there are going to be limitations as a finisher, so he’ll rely on his springiness and length to convert lobs and touch catches, rather than the craft of an Onyeka Okongwu type. This is a difficult, underrated, high value skill:
What else? Can coaches trust Duren to execute simple connective actions? Can he present any scoring threat with the ball? Will his shot ever draw respcect? It’s fair to approach answering these questions through a pessimistic lens, as Duren seems like a guy who has been tabbed to me as low feel and his early season play certainly warranted it. But I feel things are beginning to click for Duren on the offensive end; compare his early season processing and problem solving… (lol at my accidental hot mic)
To these passes from a recent game.
Duren likely won’t ever impress with high level passing, shooting or scoring like some of the other bigs in his class is, but the little things are all he needs to excel at. Things are moving slower for Duren as he learns to play within an offense. Teaching these reads isn’t rocket science and Duren starts from a higher baseline of processing and awareness than he’s been given credit for, to me.
Jaylin Williams: Short Roll, DHO keep/flow, force that closeout (?????)
For the life of me I can’t understand why Jaylin Williams can’t garner any buzz. Trevion aside, he’s the best problem solver in space of this bunch, routinely making fast and optimal decisions with the ball (I do think there’s reason for concern with his finishing due to vertical concerns despite the good #s) Why are we ignoring the dude who already feasts against undermanned defenses? This is an NBA action and an NBA level read:
The shot numbers aren’t ideal but Jaylin will shoot the ball and the movement skill is interesting to me. He’s already adept attacking bad closeouts, but I wonder if there’s something more given his odd, often perplexing movement style.
NBA processing, size and length don’t come around often, making Jaylin’s connective skills and potential role versatility worth investing in.
Trevion Williams: Short Roll (?), DHO keep/flow
Ah, yes, THE platonic connector big: wild as fuck passing, handling flashes, Trevion Williams seems like a seamless fit as a modern connector big. Purdue features Trevion in a hyper connector role, running basically every possession through him as he rifles passes all over the floor to cutters and shooters.
I think considering potential pathways to failure is key for any prospect, especially older ones with true standout skills such as Trevion. Scoring is critical for players of any position or role, as NBA defenses are too smart and will scheme the shit out of high minute players who can’t pressure the defense as a scorer, especially in the postseason. Questioning what Trevion’s NBA scoring profile will look like is reasonable as he mostly operates in the low post like many college bigs do, but doesn’t provide more modern scoring versatility.
Can he take advantage of lousy positioning as a cutter in the dunker spot? Will he ever shoot? Can he parlay solid screens and rolls into buckets? I can’t confidently say yes to any of these, so Trevion’s NBA success will rely, then, on the degree of goodness his passing skill hits. I truly believe the connective passing on short rolls, dhos and more could be in the NBA’s upper tier. Regardless, his idealized role fits snugly in many NBA offenses.
Pete Nance: DHO keep/flow, force that closeout!
Threading high difficulty, high value passes to cutters is Nance’s feature skill, one that meshes well with a few of our connective big roles. He shares Trevion’s often disrespectful audacity, squeezing passes into windows that close before they even have a chance to open.
Northwestern already asks Nance to operate as somewhat of an offensive fulcrum, running many of the connector big actions we’re discussing now. Pushing the ball into a dho, locating cutters from both elbows and popping out for above the break threes (shoutout pd web) are already in Nance’s arsenal, but I have some concern about Nance operating in the same role in the NBA given his non-elite production as a college senior in it.
Scoring will be Nance’s major limitation here, as I’m not sure he has the skill or strength to punish disadvantaged defenses when he can’t pass through them. Many of his post hooks and spins won’t be part of his theoretical NBA usage. Average three point volume and free-throws for position indicate some shooting upside for Nance and we already know he can punish overeager defenders on closeouts and on pick and pops. Even if Nance lacks real NBA size or skill for a 5, there’s enough high value skill in a high value role to imagine him ending up as a solid offensive bench piece.
Orlando Robinson: Short roll, DHO keep/flow, close-quarters finishing
Despite boasting one of the weaker combinations of shooting and passing on this list, Orlando — listed at 7’0, 235 — provides the true center size that few others do here. As such, his dhos into post ups and face-ups are more likely to see the light of day on an NBA floor, as he has the girth to bludgeon smaller bench big men.
This isn’t to suggest passing and shooting are out of the question for Orlando, as his unstructured, live dribble passing impresses considering his size. Having a handle tight and functional enough to execute various handoff and screening actions is rare at seven feet. Orlando isn’t resigned to simply backing down his opponents, as he’s swift enough to take slower-footed bigs off of the dribble and can flow between backdowns and dribbling, making him a challenge to stick with when he attacks.
Orlando already shows promise beating disadvantaged defenses via his passing out of the post when doubled. Can he translate that to more short roll/perimeter-centric situations and problems in the NBA. If so, Orlando’s size and handling skill hint at unique potential as a connector big along with being able to fill other roles. Whatever role that is, I think there’s a real player here.